MARKETVIEW™

Maximizing EV market position
through integrated demand monitoring
and predictive analytics

July 22nd, 2024

Reflecting on the surge in EV sales in 2023 and ongoing progress in 2024, it’s clear we’re in a transformative era for the automotive industry. 2023 saw unprecedented growth, with both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid vehicles (PHEVs and gas-electric vehicles) exceeding one million units and together comprising 17% of total vehicle sales.

On March 20, 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized a new emissions rule mandating up to two-thirds of new cars and trucks sold in the U.S. be EVs by 2032, signaling a commitment to cleaner transportation.1

While sales are increasing nationwide, we’re still in the early adopters’ phase, with approximately 15% of the population embracing EVs. Although more of these early adopters are found in places like Silicon Valley than in Cleveland, they are present everywhere.

For the next few years as we progress towards mass adoption, EV sales are anticipated to remain highly geographically clustered, leading to diverse experiences for dealers depending on their specific locations. The key for automakers lies in understanding the market intricacies. Successful planning for OEMs and their dealers in 2024 requires accurate forecasting and a nuanced, adaptable approach to meet the diverse demands of evolving markets.

The challenge:

For automakers, the new EPA rules present both challenges and opportunities. Meeting stringent emissions standards will require substantial investments and stimulate further competition.

The push for electrification is intensifying. By prioritizing early EV production and aligning new EVs with consumer preferences, manufacturers can secure a larger share of the rapidly expanding market across segments. Monitoring market penetration, fleet adoption and competition is critical for future success. The goal is to win EV market share early, potentially outpacing the eight-year, two-thirds fleet mandate. Targeting and marketing to early adopters, who drive positive sales trends, is a primary focus. Accurate EV sales forecasting is crucial for identifying key markets and driving tangible growth.

Manufacturers looking to embrace the transition and target EV opportunity as it grows are asking themselves the following questions:

  • What is the current size and growth trajectory of the EV market?
  • What are the key trends leading consumer EV demand?
  • How does our existing portfolio align with market demands and what adjustments should be considered?
  • Who are my main competitors in the EV market?
  • How can I ensure my investment decisions are aligned with the right EV opportunities?
  • How can I understand the right quantity and types of EV powertrains consumers will want in the future?
  • How can I best strategize my EV fleet allocation?
  • How can I better align my future EV inventory planning with charging infrastructure to support future consumer demand?

The Urban Science Solution: MarketView™

The MarketView™ EV dashboard, by Urban Science, delivers all the valuable insights of MarketView but through an EV lens. MarketView is the only automotive industry sales* analysis solution with the ability to quickly and easily analyze your position in the market for any combination of geography and segment. Now our dedicated dashboard isolates brand EV sales performance and market share data.

The EV dashboard, with the addition of our proprietary EV sales* forecast data, provides all the metrics that an OEM needs to visualize and understand their EV share/adoption rates across competitive brand, segment and geography levels now and in the future.

  • View EV unit sales, market share and percent change to determine which segments or models have improved or decreased down to specific geographies
  • Compare EV performance against the competition at segment, model and geographic levels to identify which competitors and models are winning in the market
  • Understand sales trends over time to better inform EV strategic decision-making
  • Measure and track fleet adoption percentages to monitor the competition and understand their pace, and how you measure up
  • Forecast future market share and fleet adoption for science-driven, strategic decision-making

Monitoring brand, segment and geography performance helps OEMs understand performance towards their own goals, as well as tracking competition within each of those performance dimensions. Adoption rates will differ throughout the country, so it is critical to use the EV dashboard to drill down to various geography levels to understand which areas will adopt faster than others. With such information, OEMs can make critical decisions on any infrastructure that they, or their dealers, need to make sure are in place to support anticipated demand.

Key MarketView features:

The MarketView EV dashboard, along with EV sales forecasting, is the key to unlocking network EV sales opportunities. By tracking and strategically identifying areas of EV sales growth, it provides a solid foundation for developing highly targeted and effective strategies:

Charging Infrastructure Convenience Mapping

Discover the average distance EVs need to travel to reach a charging station. A shorter distance indicates a market better prepared to meet current and future demand.

Visualize charging station locations on a map, filtering by provider (e.g., Tesla or ChargePoint) and plug type (DC or Type II). This feature, combined with an industry sales volume overlay, helps identify areas needing additional charging stations.

Data Matrix View

Create a scatter plot showing changes in market share and adoption to identify brands that have increased both metrics for a selected time period. This visualization helps users quickly spot which brands are gaining market share and advancing toward their fleet adoption goals.

Data Mapping

Monitor volume, market share trends and adoption rates across all user-accessible geography levels. Since EV market share and adoption rates vary regionally, the EV dashboard offers a unique and detailed geographic view, enabling each OEM to understand their growth rates across the country.

Fuel Type Sales

Analyze fleet volumes by fuel type compared to industry volumes to understand brand position in the market across different fuel types.

Segmentation Breakouts

Monitor and evaluate segment and model-level details to identify which model groups are leading in adoption. Some segments are more competitive in the market share battle, and EV adoption rates can vary by segment.

Business Implementation:

With our streamlined approach, leveraging existing data sets within any specific MarketView tenant and available fuel type information, the EV dashboard can be activated within 7-14 business days.**

**depends on fuel data availability

Why Urban Science?

At Urban Science, our strong reputation and proven success make us the premier choice for supporting optimal sales performance.

  • With over 40 years of experience, Urban Science fosters global data-driven decisions and performance improvements by enhancing network capabilities, strengthening customer connections, advancing service development and revealing scientifically targeted marketing opportunities.
  • As the premier consultancy and technology firm in the automotive industry, Urban Science pioneers solutions that allow for confident decisions, guide efficiency, competitiveness and profitability even in the most challenging market conditions.
  • With more than 142 global implementations of MarketView in over 27 countries, we demonstrate the proficiency to analyze and optimize performance/efficiency in markets of any scale.
  • We deliver access to more significant levels of attribute data which enables us to benchmark and measure performance better than anyone else.
  • In the United States, the Urban Science® DataHub™ is the power behind our solution. It’s the only near-real-time source of industry-wide sales volume data not based on modeled or delayed vehicle registrations. This exclusive data enables informed business decisions based on yesterday’s insights, not last month’s or last quarter’s.
  • Our forecast accuracy and methodology is unparalleled – we have a 98% accuracy forecasting EV share all the way down to the DMA level.
  • Our industry experts continuously evaluate our solution to ensure it evolves with the pace of the industry, challenges and trends.
  • We boast the highest B2B client satisfaction in our industry, a testament to our unwavering commitment to delivering exceptional service and value.

To find out more about how our MarketView solution can help you, contact us.

Craig Neorr
Global Practice Director, Sales
crneorr@urbanscience.com

1. Biden-Harris Administration finalizes strongest-ever pollution standards for cars that position U.S. companies and workers to lead the clean vehicle future, protect public health, address the climate crisis, save drivers money | US EPA.

*Sales refers to vehicle unit sales and does not represent vehicle price or revenue.

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